Cuba’s Deepening Oil and Gas Crisis: Assessing Russia’s Planned Energy Assistance

By: Wayne Forbes /GTV Editor

February 16, 2026

Cuba’s Deepening Oil and Gas Crisis: Assessing Russia’s Planned Energy Assistance

Cuba is grappling with one of its most severe energy crises in decades, marked by widespread fuel shortages, power outages, and disruptions to essential services. Against this backdrop, Russia has announced plans to deliver crude oil and refined fuels as what it terms “humanitarian assistance,” a move that carries significant geopolitical, economic, and practical implications for both nations and the broader Caribbean region.

The Crisis: Causes and Human Impact

Cuba consumes around 37,000 barrels of oil per day but produces only about one-third of its total energy needs, making it highly dependent on imports. The crisis escalated in late 2025 as key suppliers reduced or halted deliveries: Venezuela cut exports amid increased U.S. sanctions pressure, and Mexico suspended shipments due to trade tensions and tariff measures targeting countries trading with Havana. By November 2025, total energy imports had fallen 35% year-on-year, with Mexican supplies plummeting 73% and Venezuelan fuel oil shipments dropping nearly 15%.

The situation worsened in February 2026 when a fire broke out at Havana’s Nico Lopez refinery—though extinguished without casualties, it raised fears of further disruptions to already strained fuel processing capacity. The impact on daily life has been severe: power outages last up to nine hours in Havana and just two to four hours in rural areas, public transportation has been scaled back, schools and workplaces operate on reduced schedules, and hospitals face staffing shortages. The UN has warned of a potential humanitarian “collapse” if energy needs are not met, while Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos de Cossio accused the U.S. of imposing “collective punishment” through its sanctions regime.

Russia’s Planned Assistance: Motivations and Practicalities

Russia’s decision to send aid builds on a long-standing political alliance dating back to the Soviet era, when it was Cuba’s primary energy supplier. The last major shipment was in February 2025, delivering 100,000 metric tons of crude and refined products—enough to cover less than one month of demand under normal conditions. While framed as humanitarian support, the move also serves strategic goals: reinforcing ties with a key ally, expanding Russian influence in the Caribbean, and demonstrating resilience against Western sanctions imposed after the Ukraine conflict.

However, the assistance faces significant challenges. Secondary U.S. sanctions could restrict financing, tanker insurance, and maritime compliance, potentially delaying or complicating deliveries. Additionally, the short-term relief provided by Russian shipments does not address Cuba’s structural dependence on imported fossil fuels. Unlike regional neighbors such as the Dominican Republic and Jamaica, which have accelerated renewable energy deployment, Cuba relies heavily on thermal generation and has made limited progress toward its clean energy goals.

Systemic Issues: Bureaucracy and Long-Term Resilience

Cuba’s energy crisis is exacerbated by bureaucratic inefficiencies and aging infrastructure, which have hindered efforts to adapt to supply disruptions. While the government has attempted to mitigate impacts—such as promoting low-energy construction materials and decentralized food production, lessons learned from the 1990s “Special Period” after the Soviet collapse—the current crisis highlights the limits of these measures without sustained investment or diversified supply chains.

The launch of Russia’s Zarubezhneft oil project in Cuba’s Boca de Jaruco field in May 2025 offers some long-term potential, with plans to drill 30 wells over two years using innovative extraction technology. However, production volumes remain uncertain, and the project is not expected to meet immediate demand. Meanwhile, the lack of access to international financing and technology due to sanctions has slowed efforts to modernize refineries and expand renewable capacity.

Geopolitical and Regional Implications

The crisis underscores the growing divide in global energy flows, as Russia redirects exports away from Western markets toward emerging economies like Cuba. For the Caribbean, it raises questions about regional energy security and the need for collective action to reduce dependence on volatile fossil fuel supplies. While some countries have set ambitious renewable targets—Barbados and Aruba aim for over 50% penetration by 2030—Cuba’s ability to follow suit remains constrained by its economic and political isolation.

The U.S. sanctions regime, which restricts Cuba’s access to global energy markets, has been a central point of contention. While Washington argues the measures target the Cuban government, critics contend they disproportionately harm civilians and deepen the country’s reliance on authoritarian allies like Russia.